Posted: May 24th, 2022
METEO 3: Lab Exercise #13
For Day 1 Final (00-24 hour) forecast, the time is from the 00Z Apr 21, 2022, to Thru 00Z Fri Apr 22, 2022. For the Day 3 Final (48-72 hour) forecast, the time is from 00Z Thu Apr 21, 2022, to Thru 00Z Fri Apr 22, 2022.
For Day 1 Final (00-24 hour) forecast, the area predicted to have the highest precipitation was around Yuba City, California, USA, which was predicted to receive between 3.00 to 4.00 inches of rainfall. For the Day 3 Final (48-72 hour) forecast, the area around Lake Tahoe was predicted to receive the most precipitation of 2.50 to 3.00 inches.
The amount of precipitation predicted to fall in the area identified in Day 1 Final (00-24 hours) changed significantly. For the Day 3 Final (48-72 hours), the prediction changed from 2.00 to 2.50 inches to between 3.00 to 4.00 inches of precipitation. The location changed but was still adjacent to the original area, and the size remained relatively the same.
The accuracy of the forecast improves from the older forecast to a more up-to-date forecast. The extreme forecast in the Day 1-3-time frame has high levels of accuracy. The consistency of the forecasts plays a role in improving the accuracy. For the extreme precipitation, the consistency helps provide accurate records, and even changes in forecast details lead to few changes in the predictions.
The area that changed the most in the North-Eastern part of the state of Texas, where the predicted precipitation amounts changed from between 0 to 0.01 inches of precipitation to 0.10 to 0.25 inches of precipitation.
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