Posted: May 24th, 2022

The predicted precipitation amounts change paper


METEO 3: Lab Exercise #13

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  1. (1 point) The “valid” and “thru” times listed on your maps (toward the lower left) mark the beginning and end of the forecast period, respectively. What is the forecast period covered by your QPF maps? You may express the times and dates in Z-time, just as they are on the image. Note: the forecast period should be the same for each of your maps.

For Day 1 Final (00-24 hour) forecast, the time is from the 00Z Apr 21, 2022, to Thru 00Z Fri Apr 22, 2022. For the Day 3 Final (48-72 hour) forecast, the time is from 00Z Thu Apr 21, 2022, to Thru 00Z Fri Apr 22, 2022.

  1. (1 point) Identify the area that was predicted to receive the most precipitation on your Day 1 QPF map. If there’s not one area that’s predicted to get more precipitation than all others, choose one of the areas “tied” for having the most predicted precipitation. Describe its location (using portions of states and/or bodies of water) and the amount of precipitation that was predicted to fall. When expressing the amount of precipitation, your answer should be a range consistent with the contour interval on the map (such as “between 1.25 and 1.50 inches,” for example).


For Day 1 Final (00-24 hour) forecast, the area predicted to have the highest precipitation was around Yuba City, California, USA, which was predicted to receive between 3.00 to 4.00 inches of rainfall. For the Day 3 Final (48-72 hour) forecast, the area around Lake Tahoe was predicted to receive the most precipitation of 2.50 to 3.00 inches.

  1. (1 point) Now refer to your Day 3 QPF map (the forecast that was issued a couple of days earlier) and analyze the amount of precipitation predicted to fall in the area you identified in question 2. How did the amount change, if at all? Did the location or size of the area of heavy precipitation change? How? Keep your descriptions limited to a few sentences.

The amount of precipitation predicted to fall in the area identified in Day 1 Final (00-24 hours) changed significantly. For the Day 3 Final (48-72 hours), the prediction changed from 2.00 to 2.50 inches to between 3.00 to 4.00 inches of precipitation. The location changed but was still adjacent to the original area, and the size remained relatively the same.

  1. (1 point) Based on what you learned in the lesson about the accuracy of extreme precipitation forecasts, are forecast changes between a Day 3 precipitation forecast (an “older” forecast) and a Day 1 precipitation forecast (a more “up-to-date” forecast) for a certain period typically to be expected? Briefly discuss (no more than a few sentences) based on what you learned in the lesson about the accuracy (on average) of extreme precipitation forecasts in the Day 1-3-time frame. Does this level of accuracy lend itself to consistent forecasts where no changes are needed? Or does it lend itself to changes in forecast details?

The accuracy of the forecast improves from the older forecast to a more up-to-date forecast. The extreme forecast in the Day 1-3-time frame has high levels of accuracy. The consistency of the forecasts plays a role in improving the accuracy. For the extreme precipitation, the consistency helps provide accurate records, and even changes in forecast details lead to few changes in the predictions.

  1. (Optional, one bonus point possible) Identify an area on your QPF forecast maps (separate from the area you chose for your analysis above) where the precipitation forecast changed drastically between the Day 3 and Day 1 forecast (different from the area you analyzed in the previous questions). Describe the region and the changes briefly (no more than a few sentences).

The area that changed the most in the North-Eastern part of the state of Texas, where the predicted precipitation amounts changed from between 0 to 0.01 inches of precipitation to 0.10 to 0.25 inches of precipitation.

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